Alabama reigns as the beast of college football, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s always a good bet. In fact, thanks mostly to some stiff spreads, the Crimson Tide are only 4-7 against the spread over their last 11 home games. Alabama will face a huge spread again when it hosts Kent State out of the MAC on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa.
Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 41.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 50.2-0.0 Crimson Tide (college football picks on every game)
Why the Kent State Golden Flashes can cover the spread
The Flashes are only 1-2 on the season but 2-1 ATS after beating Monmouth last week 27-7, covering as 14-point favorites. Kent State led the Hawks 3-0 after one quarter, 13-0 at the half and 20-0 before allowing Monmouth to hit the board. The Flashes then iced the victory and the cover on Mylik Mitchell’s second touchdown pass of the day with just over two minutes to go.
For the day, Kent State outgained the Hawks 343-199 and won the ground battle 235-67.
The Flashes opened this season with a 33-13 loss at Penn State, but that game was closer than that final score might indicate, and they hung on for the cover as 24-point dogs.
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread
Alabama is 3-0 this season after last week’s 48-43 come-from-behind victory at nemesis Ole Miss. The Tide fell down to the Rebels 7-0 just two minutes into the game and trailed 24-3 late into the second quarter. But Alabama scored twice just before halftime, tied the game on a fumble return early in the third quarter and pulled away from there to a 48-30 lead. Sadly for their financial backers, the Tide allowed Ole Miss to score twice late, blowing the cover as 10-point favorites.
On the day, Alabama outrushed the Rebels 334-106, won time of possession by a 35-25 split and scored three defensive/special teams touchdowns.
The Tide opened this season with that 52-6 demolition of USC, covering 14 points, then beat Western Kentucky 38-10, covering 27 points.
Alabama is going to win this game; the only question is whether it will cover that huge spread or not. The Tide had success in a similar situation two weeks ago, cashing in against Western Kentucky, but they have been known to ease up on lesser opponents. Over the last few seasons, Alabama is only 6-10 ATS against non-Power Five programs.
It’s not easy betting against the top-ranked team in the country, but the smart money here lies with the dog, plus the points.
Alabama is 29-1 straight up in its last 30 games in September.
Alabama is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
Kent State is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games after a win.
All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.
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