Alabama is 20-1 straight up in its last 21 games against SEC East teams, including back-to-back conference championship victories, and 14-7 against the spread. The Crimson Tide figure to extend at least one of those trends when they host Kentucky on Saturday down in Tuscaloosa.
Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 32.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 47.2-0.0 Crimson Tide (college football picks on every game)
Why the Kentucky Wildcats can cover the spread
Kentucky opened this season with losses to Southern Miss and Florida, but it has since won two straight games, including a 17-10 SEC decision over South Carolina last week. The Wildcats trailed the Gamecocks 7-3 at the half but drove the second-half kickoff to a touchdown—a 43-yard burst from Stanley Williams. Later, they broke a 10-10 tie on Benjamin Snell Jr.’s one-yard score and held on from there for the win and the cover as three-point favorites.
On the night, Kentucky ran the ball 50 times, including seven consecutive carries on its game-winning scoring drive, for 216 yards. UK held the ball for almost 33 minutes. Meanwhile, the Wildcats defense limited the Gamecocks to just 268 total yards.
Two weeks ago, UK broke loose for 692 yards—381 on the ground—in a 62-42 victory over New Mexico State.
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread
Alabama is 4-0 and sitting on top of the college football world, and it is 3-1 ATS this season after blanking Kent State last week 48-0. The Tide scored a touchdown on their opening possession, led 21-0 after one quarter and 41-0 at the half. They scored another touchdown on their first possession of the second half and eased home from there, preserving the shutout and the cash as 42-point favorites.
On the day, Alabama outgained the Golden Flashes 502-166 and rushed for 285 yards, while the Tide defense allowed just one third-down conversion in 13 situations. Also, while starting running back Damien Harris left last week’s game with a sprained ankle, freshman backup Joshua Jacobs ran 11 times for 97 yards and two touchdowns.
Alabama has now outrushed each opponent this season by at least 101 yards, including USC by 178 and Ole Miss by 228.
Barring a miracle, the Tide will win this game; it’s just a matter of the final tally. But as is almost always the case with Alabama playing at home, it’s favored by a ton, and there’s always the possibility of garbage time. On the underdog side of this matchup, Kentucky is a better team than it was a month ago. If the Wildcats could just grind out some first downs and avoid the turnovers, they could cash in here.
Kentucky is 0-5 SU in its last five games against Alabama.
Kentucky is 1-3 ATS in its last four games against Alabama.
Kentucky is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.
All college football betting lines and point-spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds-tracker app.
Read more Alabama Crimson Tide Football news on BleacherReport.com