As the best team in college football, Alabama often plays against inflated spreads, especially at home. And it’s showing, as the Tide are only 5-8 against the spread over their last 13 games at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama will play as a large home favorite again when it hosts Texas A&M for a big SEC West showdown Saturday afternoon.
Point spread: The Crimson Tide opened as 16.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 37.6-21.4 Crimson Tide (College football picks on every game)
Why the Texas A&M Aggies can cover the spread
The Aggies are off to their best start in over 20 years—and 4-0 in SEC play—after outlasting Tennessee in double overtime two weeks ago 45-38. They then had last week off.
Texas A&M jumped out to a 21-7 first-quarter lead on the Volunteers and bumped that to 28-7 early in the third. The Aggies still led 35-21 late but allowed Tennessee to score twice in the last three minutes to force overtime. A&M could have won it in regulation, but much to the relief of bettors who backed the Aggies as seven-point favorites, kicker Daniel LaCamera missed from 38 yards out. Texas A&M then won it with Trevor Knight’s fifth touchdown of the day in the top of the second extra frame, followed by a defensive pick.
Texas A&M cranked out 592 yards of offense against Tennessee, as freshman running back Trayveon Williams ran 28 times for 217 yards and a touchdown, although he also committed a key fumble.
The Aggies have now outrushed five of six opponents this season and are better overall by an average of 115 yards per game.
Why the Alabama Crimson Tide can cover the spread
Alabama isn’t just 7-0 on the season, it’s also 5-2 ATS, impressive for a team that’s favored by so much so often. Last week, as two-touchdown favorites on the road, the Tide rolled to a 49-10 victory at Tennessee, easily snatching the cash. Alabama led 14-0 in the first quarter and never let the Vols in the game, tacking on three late scores for the gaudy final tally.
The Tide simply dominated, outgaining Tennessee 594-163 and outrushing the Volunteers 438-32 as Jalen Hurts ran for 132 yards and three touchdowns. Alabama also added scores on an interception return and a punt return, upping its total on the season to 11 defensive/special teams touchdowns already.
The Crimson Tide have now outrushed all seven opponents this season by an average of 201 yards per game.
Alabama is a monster, but playing at home means the spread at online betting sites is probably inflated by at least a field goal, maybe more. Plus, Texas A&M had last week off. If the Aggies can run the ball to some effect, avoid the turnovers and force a couple on defense, they could keep this one close.
Alabama is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with winning records.
Alabama is 19-0 SU in its last 19 games.
The total has gone under in eight of Texas A&M’s last 11 games.
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